Meeting Summary

The 5th APEC Energy Data Expert Group Meeting was held on 14 and 15 April 1995 at the Conference Room of the Institute of Energy Economics, the Energy Data and Modelling Center in Tokyo chaired by Mr. Kenichi Matsui.

The meeting started with the welcome address of Mr. Tsuyoshi Nakai, Director, Strategic Policy Planning Division, Agency of Natural Resources and Energy, MITI Japan.

Participants came from Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Philippines, Singapore, Chinese Taipei, Thailand, and the United States. The APEC Secretariat, the APEC EWG secretariat, AEEMTRC (on behalf of the ASEAN Secretariat) and the South Pacific Forum Secretariat also joined the meeting.

The meeting had two items for report and discussion i.e.

1. Report and Discussion on the APEC Energy Statistics
2. APEC Energy Projections.

For the first item, Mr. Shigeru Kimura, Senior Researcher of the Energy Data and Modelling Center, Coordinating Agency (CA) of this Group reported that the CA collected annual data for 1993 as well as quarterly basis data for 1994 of the member economies. He explained also how the CA produced the APEC Energy Statistics based on these data. The CA prepared Historical Energy Statistics and also updated major economic indicators.

He proposed a schedule for the 1995 Standard Run and reported a development plan for use of Internet and establishment of a Database Management System. He pointed out as one problem that there were member economies which delivered data not in time and asked member economies to keep reporting on time. Relating to his report, use of E-mail and Internet was discussed and recommended to introduce as quick as possible for communication and data exchange among members. The representative of APEC secretariat, advised that as requested by BAC, strong justification should be provided for applying APEC central fund to publish the database every year and additionally other ways to disseminate the information should be explored. It was a unanimous view of the Expert Group that the APEC Energy Statistics is one of the most important publication, and it should be continued to be published annually, and money from the Central Fund should be allocated for this purpose every year.

Following three presentations were made for the second discussion item: "APEC Energy Projections".

1. "Summary of Existing Member Economies Projections" by Ms. Yukari Yamashita, Senior Researcher of the Energy Data and Modelling Center.
2. "Methodologies and Assumptions" by Mr. Roger Stuart, Manager, Energy Economics Branch, ABARE, Australia.
3. "Data Requirement and Availability" by Dr. Ji-Chul Ryu, Director, Energy Demand and Supply Policy Division, Korea Energy Economics Institute, Korea.

Through the presentations and discussion, main technical issues surrounding this topic were identified such as the way of geographic aggregation - member economy, subregional, and or APEC as a whole -, type of models, degree of disaggregation, data availability, standardization of heat value concept - gross or net - etc. After discussion it was acknowledged by the Group that it is useful, desirable and technically feasible to initiate work for forecasting which would use such methodologies as surveys, market analyses, geological information and econometric model, to make energy projections for APEC.

It was reported that the first APEC Coal Flow Seminar was held in Tokyo on 4-7 October 1994 with success and that the 9th Energy Working Group held on 26 and 27 October 1994 in Thailand, agreed to a proposal that follow up seminars to be held.

For the Future Action Plan of the APEC Energy Statistics, following schedules were proposed by the CA and accepted.

Relating to this action plan, as mentioned earlier, the Coordinating Agency presented its plan for a wider use of Internet for data collection and information exchange. For the APEC energy projections, Japan proposed a future action plan and an initiative including promotion of the energy research center plan. The Energy Expert Group showed great interest to these proposals and put forward this proposal to the Government and Business Sector Expert Meeting on Energy Projections for their consideration.