The 25th Meeting of the APEC Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis (EGEDA) was held on 11 to 13 November 2013 in Bangkok, Thailand.
The meeting was hosted by the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO), Ministry of Energy, Thailand. Dr. Kenichi Matsui, Councilor, Energy Data and Modeling Unit (EDMC), Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) chaired the meeting. Representatives from Brunei Darussalam, People’s Republic of China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Chinese Taipei and Thailand attended the meeting. Representatives of the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) were also present. Two representatives of the International Energy Agency (IEA) attended the meeting as guest speakers. The list of participants is provided in the Annex.
The meeting commenced with the welcome address by Dr. Samerjai Suksumek, Director-General of the Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy, Thailand, followed by an opening and thanking address by EGEDA Chair Dr. Kenichi Matsui.
After that, Mr. Shigeru Kimura, Senior Research Fellow of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) briefed on the key issues discussed at the 44th meeting of Energy Working Group (EWG) in Washington D.C. on 5 to 8 November 2012 and during the 45th meeting on 18 to 21 March 2013 in Samui Island, Thailand. Mr. Kimura reported on EGEDA’s activities relating to data collection particularly on JODI Oil and JODI Gas. A workshop on Shale Gas was held in Washington D.C. In Samui Island, Mr. Kimura reported EGEDA’s continuing activities including its participation in International Energy Statistics Workshop as well as Biomass Data Workshop and in the meetings of other expert groups such as Expert Group on Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EGEE&C) and Expert Group on New and Renewable Energy Technologies (EGNRET). There was also a fossil fuels subsidies reform capacity building workshop and a discussion on energy data issues, energy intensity and renewable energy targets. He highlighted that EGEDA project proposal for 2013 was adopted at third rank in Session 3 of the Budget Management Committee (BMC) meeting.
The meeting discussed the following items:
Annual Energy Data Collection for 2011-2012, Quarterly Data Collection for 2012-2013, CO2 Emission Data Collection for 2011
Mr. Takuya Miyagawa, Senior Researcher from the EDMC/IEEJ, which is the Coordinating Agency (CA) of this Expert Group, reported on the Annual Energy Data Collection for 2011 and 2012. He reported timeliness and completeness on the 2011 annual data collection. Viet Nam did not submit their 2011 annual energy data to the CA. The statistics and handbooks were published without the Viet Nam’s 2011 data. CA will continue to contact Viet Nam and will update the online versions of the publications as soon as Viet Nam submits the 2011 annual data.
He then reported on Quarterly Data for 2012 and 2013, Energy Price Data Collection for 2011 and on CO2 Emissions Data Collection for 2011. For the quarterly data collection, he reported that timeliness has improved but completeness could be enhanced, especially in terms of stock change data for coal, oil and natural gas. He also asked member economies cooperation to collect energy price data.
On the question how the CA estimated the data of Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Peru, the CA responded that the JODI oil data that PNG submits monthly are augmented by oil and gas production data from the upstream oil operator along with data on geothermal electricity generation obtained from the plant owner’s website. Final energy demand and electricity consumption and production were estimated by the CA based on economic growth and historical electricity production, respectively. For Peru, the CA was able to obtain the preliminary energy balance table provided by Peru to IEA.
Japan requested member economies to submit annual energy data as well as prices data to the CA. IEA shared the information that somebody from Viet Nam attended the last energy statistics training。 The trainee may become the new focal point on energy statistics in Viet Nam.
On the question why the CA does not estimate the CO2 emission using the energy balances, the CA responded that member economies prefer that their own data should be used to avoid conflict with official data and CA estimates.
APERC requested that the CA collect more detailed information on electric power generating capacity in view of the aggregated nature of thermal power capacities in the APEC database. The CA responded that the current questionnaire already provides for the disaggregation of thermal power capacity but the responses of the economies were not as detailed as desired by the CA. APERC suggested that the CA revise the questionnaire similar to that of IEA which provides for reporting of information by multi-fired power plants.
Malaysia asked why the energy balance of Malaysia is different in IEA and APEC although the economy is submitting the same set of data to both organizations. The CA mentioned that it could be due to the use of IEA of regional conversion factors especially for oil but the CA promised to investigate in more details and give its observations to Malaysia.
APEC Energy Supply-Demand Trends
Mr. Kawakami, Economist of EDMC/IEEJ, presented an overview of the APEC energy demand and supply situation and the trend of some indices on energy efficiency. He reported that despite APEC's decreasing share in the world population, its share in the world TPES (total primary energy supply) increased from 52.8% in 1990 to 56.2% in 2011. This trend is similar to that of APEC's share in world GDP which has increased from 59.4% to 62.4% during the same period. The TPES/GDP (GDP in constant 2000 price) ratio has fallen by 11 percent over this period.
On energy intensities of East Asia + Russia region in APEC, it was observed that despite the decrease of the energy intensities of all the economies included in the group the energy intensity calculated as a region actually increased. APERC shared the same observation and mentioned that it is due to the use of GDP as exchange rate values and suggested that GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) is used instead. IEA also cautioned on the use of energy intensity as indicator of energy efficiency as improved energy intensity does not always mean improvement in energy efficiency.
The Chair mentioned that energy policy makers should be educated about energy and economic data so that targets like improvement of energy intensity would be more sensible. The CA urged member economies to carry out the same analysis of their energy consumption trends similar to what was presented by the CA.
The Chair told the meeting that on the joint meeting with the APEC EGEE&C, energy intensity can be discussed further as EGEE&C also measures energy intensity but in a more detailed level.
The Joint Organisations Data Initiative Progress in 2013
JODI World developments
Ms. Mieke Reece of IEA reported on the developments in JODI Oil and Gas in 2013. Although the decrease in the participation of economies in 2013 might raise concern the JODI partners are reacting by taking measures on three fronts: working with data providers by organizing trainings (e.g. for Latin America countries in Ecuador in May 2013 and for Asia-Pacific in Kuala Lumpur in October 2013), by making access and use of the JODI world database more user-friendly and the profile of JODI is being raised through providing feedback to G20 and IEF Ministerial meetings.
In terms of Gas, the objective is to launch the JODI Gas World database in 2014. For this certain condition need to be fulfilled; the JODI Gas manual, which is being managed by UNSD will be finalized, a data quality evaluation needs to be completed and a certain level of world production and consumption needs to be covered. Currently 78% of production and 82% of consumption are covered by 59 countries. Efforts are being made to increase this coverage by engaging with GECF (the Gas Exporting Countries Forum). The plan is to launch JODI Gas in Moscow of the occasion of IEF Ministerial Meeting in 2014.
Progress of JODI Oil in APEC
Mr. Edito Barcelona, Senior Coordinator, EDMC/IEEJ, reported on the status of the monthly oil data collection in the APEC region and the submissions to the JODI Oil database. Twenty APEC economies are submitting data on a regular basis using the extended questionnaire with occasional non-submission by some economies. Mr. Barcelona mentioned the proposal to make the criteria for the assessment of participation to JODI (Smiley Faces) more stringent to further improve the initiative. Regarding the accuracy of the data, member economies were requested to look into the deviations, identify sources of deviations, find a solution to minimize the deviations, and send revisions to the CA.
He also reported the trial collection of monthly bio-fuel data. He reported that 10 of the 21 APEC economies are submitting JODI Oil data using the format that includes bio-fuels. However only 4 of those 10 economies reported bio-fuels consumption.
Mr. Barcelona also reported on the 8th JODI Training held on 28-30 October 2013 held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Nine APEC member economies were among the 14 countries that participated in the training. He reported on the major outcomes of the training, one of which was the understanding of the participants of the physical oil and natural gas flow and how are these reported in the JODI Oil and JODI Gas questionnaires. He also mentioned that representatives of international energy organizations that were the resource persons in the training are optimistic that the JODI data reporting in Asia-Pacific will improve due to the training.
After the presentation, a discussion on the proposed change in the assessment of participation to JODI ensued. The Chair mentioned that the CA should convey the position of EGEDA that the current criteria for the assessment of participation should be maintained for APEC until EGEDA is able to decide on it on its next meeting.
Regarding JODI Training, Japan expressed its hope that the JODI Training was helpful to all the participants and encouraged member economies to exert more efforts to improve timeliness, sustainability and completeness.
Progress of JODI Gas in APEC
Mr. Barcelona also reported on the current status of monthly natural gas data collection in the APEC region. He reported that as of October 2013, all 21 economies have participated in JODI Gas with Singapore’s submission of JODI Gas data starting June 2013 and PNG’s submission of 2013 monthly gas data during the JODI training. However, he noted that Viet Nam has stopped submitting again since April 2013. Timeliness slightly deteriorated in 2013 and in view of this, Mr. Barcelona requested member economies to submit the data on time.
Coming Events (International Energy Agency)
Mr. Jean-Yves Garnier of IEA presented the various IEA meetings on energy statistics which took place in 2013 and will take place in 2014. In 2013, beside the regular training sessions at the IEA (March and October) the IEA participated in several training sessions with APEC, IEF, UNSD and the African Energy Commission. Mr. Garnier mentioned that statistics will be high on the Agenda of the IEA Ministerial meeting on 17 November 2013 reminding Ministers of the importance of allocating proper resources to statistics. Lastly, Mr. Garnier gave a short demonstration of the new statistics page of the IEA web-site; he presented the dynamic Sankey flow representation of energy balances, which includes many user-friendly features.
The IEA announced it holds two energy statistics trainings per year in Paris and the invitation for the March 2014 training will be issued soon. In view of the limited number of trainees accepted to this training numbering only 30, the IEA suggested to EGEDA to submit their application as early as possible.
Coming Events (Coordinating Agency)
Mr. Kimura presented the coming events to be organized by the CA. The first is the 12th Energy Statistics Workshop in Tokyo in March 2014 which will be a joint workshop with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). IEEJ will send the invitation on January 2014 and announced that participants will be requested to bring their laptops along with their 2012 annual energy data. APEC-OECD member economies are also invited to attend to share their experience and expertise on energy data preparation to developing economies.
Mr. Kimura also announced that the CA will dispatch mission teams to Southeast Asia, East Asia and Latin America. On the trips to Southeast Asia and East Asia, Mr. Kimura mentioned that the CA will discuss with the economies that will be visited issues on the economies’ energy data at the APEC Energy Database with the objective of fixing data inconsistency problems. The CA teams will also ask about the data collection systems in the member economies and will discuss the revised annual energy questionnaires.
In Latin America, the CA will request for sustainable, timely and complete data submission from Colombia (if Colombia becomes a member of APEC) and Peru as well as future areas of collaboration with the Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE).
Japan also mentioned that it supports the activities of the coordinating agency and asked economies to participate in the workshop to be held in Tokyo and also accept the mission trips of the CA to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and Latin America for the improvement of the quality of energy statistics in APEC.
Report on EGNRET40 and EGEE&C41 meetings
Mr. Miyagawa reported on CA’s participation to the EGNRET40 and EGEE&C41 meeting held in April 2013.
EGNRET held their 40th meeting on April 2 to 5, 2013 in Hanoi, Viet Nam. In EGNRET40, EGEDA made a presentation about their energy data collection including their new and renewable energy data collection.
The 41st meeting of the EGEE&C was held on April 11 to 12, 2013 in Beijing, China. EGEDA provided presentation on the processes used for data collection for their publications, the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) for oil and gas, quarterly data collection and annual energy data collection for APEC economies. The presentation also included the Energy Efficiency Indicators.
Japan commented that since EGEDA has started to work with EGNRET and EGEE&C, it hopes that there will be great improvement on data collection. It encourages EGEDA to continue to work with IEA as well.
Revision of Questionnaires and Definitions for Annual Energy Data
Mr. Miyagawa introduced the revisions to the APEC questionnaires and definitions of the annual energy data. For the oil questionnaire, he proposed to include data on non-energy use, and to include the production of petroleum products from natural gas. For the natural gas questionnaire, he presented the inclusion of data on unconventional gases such as “shale gas” and “coal seam gas”. Moreover, some additional tables on “LNG Production”, “LNG Regasification” and “Gas-to-Liquids Production” are added. For the annual questionnaires, he proposed to expand the import/export origins and destinations. The revised questionnaires will be provided to each member economy with manuals in early December 2013.
APERC asked on the compatibility of the revised questionnaire with that of the IEA. The CA responded that the revision is still compatible with IEA Gas questionnaire.
Japan asked member economies to use the revised questionnaire and asked IEEJ to assist member economies in filling out the revised questionnaire and report the results during the Energy Statistics Workshop in Tokyo to be held in March 2014.
The session opened with a presentation by APERC Vice-President Ralph Samuelson reviewing APERC’s 2013 research activities and APERC’s plan for 2014. The presentation did not cover APERC’s cooperative activities, as these were covered separately in the next session. Dr. Samuelson reported that APERC’s major research accomplishment in 2013 was publishing the APEC Energy Outlook 5th Edition. This publication presents a 25-year look-ahead at the energy future of the APEC region. This edition of the Outlook included a business-as-usual scenario and three alternative scenarios, or sets of scenarios: a high gas scenario, alternative urban development scenarios, and a ‘virtual clean car race’, which considered the benefits of various types of alternative vehicles. He explained that a great deal of effort had gone into developing the models for the Outlook 5th Edition, which were totally new and mostly developed by APERC.
Dr. Samuelson explained that APERC had been making special efforts to promote the Outlook to policymakers and other potential users. Detailed results of all scenarios are available for downloading from APERC’s website. Media releases and a press conference were arranged at the time of the publication of the Outlook, and Outlook team members made visits to 6 economies to give presentations on the results.
In other areas, APERC continues to support the APEC Energy Working Group in monitoring the progress towards APEC’s energy intensity goal. APERC had a very successful Annual Conference in February, 2013. Two APERC staff members published articles in peer-reviewed journals and additional researchers made presentations at international conferences. APERC rolled-out a new, more user-friendly website.
Looking ahead to 2014, APERC is already starting work on further enhancements to its models for the transportation fleet, electricity supply, and industrial demand, and has developed its own macroeconomic model. Special topical studies are in progress on several important topics. Dr. Samuelson presented a preliminary schedule for the Outlook 6th Edition, which targeted a mid-2015 release.
IEA asked how APERC obtained the data it used in modeling end-use energy consumption in the residential sector. APERC responded that they used the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory study on residential energy consumption. Some APERC researchers are also able to obtain these data from their own economies. Regarding the oil price assumptions, APERC mentioned that it used IEA assumptions in its World Energy Outlook.
The presentation on APERC’s research activities was followed by a presentation by APERC researcher Mr. Goichi Komori reviewing APERC’s 2013 cooperative activities and plan for 2014. Cooperative activities are those activities where APERC works directly with APEC member economies to solve their energy problems or improve their energy situation. These include the Peer Review of Energy Efficiency (PREE), the Peer Review of Low-Carbon Energy Policies (PRLCE), the Cooperative Energy Efficiency Design for Sustainability (CEEDS), the Low-Carbon Model Town (LCMT) project, and the Oil and Gas Security Exercises (OGSE). Each of activities made considerable progress in 2013, which Mr. Komori described.
Mr. Komori explained that due to staff constraints, it will probably be necessary for APERC to scale-back its cooperative activities somewhat in 2014. This would include doing one (rather than two) PREEs or Follow-Up PREES, one (rather than two) PRLCE’s, and replacing CEEDS with an annual half-day ‘PREE Policy Workshop’.
Mr. Komori then gave a presentation on the APEC Energy Overview 2012 and plan for APEC Energy Overview 2013. The Overview is an annual APERC publication describing the current energy situation in each APEC economy, including an energy supply and consumption summary, a policy overview, and a description of notable energy developments. Mr. Komori highlighted some of the key developments reported in Outlook 2013. He emphasized the need for continued cooperation from APEC member economies, especially by submitting information on notable energy developments and by participating in the pre-publication review process. He outlined an expected schedule for the Overview 2013, which would result in publication by late January 2014.
Dr. Samuelson then gave the final Session 4 presentation on “Monitoring APEC’s Energy Intensity Goals”. He explained that this presentation very much continued the discussion of the APEC Energy Statistics in Session 1. APERC would like to use the APEC Energy Statistics in its work, but because of past experiences with data discrepancies, currently uses mostly IEA data. As an experiment, APERC this year prepared an update on progress toward APEC’s energy intensity reduction goal using data from both the IEA and the APEC Energy Statistics. The two sets of results proved to be quite different, reflecting differences in the underlying energy demand numbers between the two data sources. Dr. Samuelson recommended that EDMC and IEA work together to understand the sources of differences in their data.
A discussion of the differences between IEA and APEC Energy Statistics followed. It was pointed out that the IEA data includes estimates of residential and commercial biomass for some economies, which are not included in the APEC Energy Statistics, and that this difference may explain much of the difference in the apparent progress toward APEC’s energy intensity reduction goal. APERC agreed to work with the EDMC, to further investigate the sources of the data differences, and to consider next steps toward making the APEC Energy Statistics more useful.
EGEDA Chair Kenichi Matsui congratulated APERC on the publication of the Outlook 5th Edition, but expressed some concerns that APERC’s research goals may be overly ambitious. Dr. Samuelson agreed that the goals were ambitions, but pointed out that the product of some of the studies now underway may be just discussions in the Outlook 6th Edition, not independent research reports. The group appreciated the contribution of APERC and its plan for 2014 as proper and timely in line with the EWG direction.
EGEDA project proposal for funding from the APEC Operational Account for 2014
The Chair reported that EGEDA’s proposal for 2014 had been accepted at Session 2 of the Budget and Management Committee (BMC) in July 2013.
Mr. Kimura presented that the CA started a visiting energy statistician program in 2013 with the work attachment of Indonesia to the CA. He also announced future recruitment for 2014.
Brunei Darussalam offered to host the 26th EGEDA Meeting in 2014. The delegates welcomed the offer.
Session 6: Summary session
A draft of the summary record was discussed and adopted after amendments.
The Chair expressed on behalf of all participants appreciation and thanks to the Government of Thailand and the Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy.