The 8th APEC Energy Data and Outlook Expert Group Meeting was held on 12 and 13 March 1997 at the Conference room of the ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics) Canberra, Australia, chaired by Mr. Kenichi Matsui. Participants came from Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Philippines, Chinese Taipei, Thailand, USA and the APERC (Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre).
The meeting started with the welcome address of Mr. Bob Alderson, First Assistant Secretary, Department of Primary Industries and Energy, Australia and Coordinator of the APEC Energy Working Group.
The meeting had the following two main items for report and discussion.
1. Current Status of the APEC Energy Statistics
Mr. Shigeru Kimura, senior researcher of the Energy Data and Modelling Center, Coordinating Agency (CA) of this Group reported that the CA collected annual data for 1995, quarterly data for 1996 as well as figures for the expanded data items per agreement during the last 6th EDOEG Meeting in Manila on 26 and 27 February 1996. He pointed out the following problems in data collection.
There are some economies which have not submitted their data yet.
He urged members to observe timely submission of data, to send consistent data and to send separate quarterly data and not cumulative.
Afterwards he made the following proposals.
(a) To move forward the date of the publication of the "APEC Energy Statistics" from October to May to increase the value of the publication and to publish only the annual data. The quarterly data will however be available on-line in the database.
After discussion, proposal (a) was judged by the group to be too early to introduce. The group accepted proposal (b) recognizing that some data elements and data for some years are unavailable.
Mr. Kimura then presented an updated version of the Overview of the APEC Energy Situation consisting of regional summary of the primary energy supply, final energy consumption, primary energy supply per capita etc. This overview will be added to the "APEC Energy Statistics" as the introductory summary. The group appreciated the overview and indicated that it will add value to the publication. It is agreed to add analysis on electricity to the current overview and in future each issue will include a detailed analysis of a particular sector. He explained also the current status of the APEC Energy Network from the aspects of both hardware and software.
Then he reported the situation of collecting data for the expanded data items and made a proposal to collect annual data for the expanded data items from 1980 onwards (except 1994 which are now being collected). However, if possible, member economies are requested to submit equivalent data from 1971. The CA will send to each member economy input sheets for this purpose by the end of June and each member shall send back the completed sheets to the CA by the end of December 1997.2. Activities of the APERC (Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre)
At the start of session 2, Dr. Brian Fisher, Executive Director of the ABARE made a short presentation on ABARE and its research activities. He also introduced their energy and environment model called MEGABARE.
Under the discussion item 2, APERC's activity, the EDOEG first took note of the report of Mr. Keiichi Yokobori, President of the APERC on the current status of APERC . He indicated that as of end February 1997, there are 13 researchers posted at APERC. Mr. Andrew Dickson from Australia will join the centre later this week. Mr. Yokobori also presented APERC's budget for fiscal year 1997 which will be approved by the Japanese Diet. Mr. Go Miyazato of MITI, Japan added that APERC's current budget reflects the best effort on the part of the Japanese government under severe budgetary constraint.
Dr. Ji-Chul Ryu, Vice President of the APERC explained their proposed methodology for the APEC Energy Outlook while Mr. Jesus Tamang, Team Leader of APERC presented on their data needs in support of the APEC Energy Outlook. Dr. Ryu reported that the approach to be used by APERC will be decided shortly and that their preliminary results could be available by end of June and they will be distributed to the member economies for their comments. Reflecting the comments, final result will be worked out by the end of December this year. He also presented APERC's work program for 1997 which details the activities to be undertaken to complete the APEC Energy Outlook. Lastly, he presented to the group the program for APERC's workshop on Methodologies and Data scheduled to be held from 17 to 19 March in Tokyo.
The group discussed and expressed different views on the appropriate level of disaggregation for the presentation of the outlook result. Mr. Yokobori made a note as attached to this summary on this subject. Each economy was asked to send comments on this issue to the APERC. The group agreed to seek guidance from the EWG.
Mr. Tamang presented the problems APERC encountered in reviewing the available information in the APEC Energy Database and other reference materials available at the centre. Briefly, these problems are summarized as (1) Very high level of aggregation (2) Short time series (3) Missing energy data series (4) Missing non-energy data series and (5) Differences with official publications. Per APERC's recommendation the group agreed on the following:
The Coordinating Agency was asked to scrutinize Mr. Tamang's report to find relevant points for further discussion at the next EDOEG Meeting.
Mr. Yokobori also reported on the proposed APERC research themes for 1998. He indicated that some suggestions received from member economies would be covered by the on-going outlook development, which would be revisited after the completion of the outlook. Other suggestions were examined against the criteria developed by the EWG. He proposed the following six themes as preliminary candidates.
He stressed that further home work would be needed to incorporate suggestions from the EDOEG as well as from other relevant expert groups. The EDOEG took note of his presentation and decided that members send their comments or suggestion to the proposed themes by 31 March 1997 in time for presentation at the EWG Meeting in Santiago.
Under other business, the CA proposed to make a proposal to the coming EWG to carry 1997/98 Standard Run and to request the APEC Central Fund for US$ 20,000 same amount as the last year, for the publication of the APEC Energy Statistics. This proposal was agreed.
Mr. Tae Sik Park, research fellow, energy statistics division of the Korea Energy Economics Institute, kindly offered to host the next EDOEG Meeting in Korea, which will be likely to be held in March or April 1998.
Mr. John Hartwell, Assistant Secretary, Energy Policy Branch of the Department of the Primary Industries and Agriculture, Australia, who is responsible for APEC EWG Secretariat, briefly informed the group on the priority programs of the APEC EWG.
Lastly on behalf of all participants the Chairman expressed his appreciation to the Government of Australia through the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resources Economics for excellently hosting the Meeting.